August 13, 2026 /3BL/ – Weather experts issued serious warnings about the 2026 El Niño in July.
Forecasts from both the U.S. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) and the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predict “strong” to “very strong” El Niño conditions July-December. El Niño and La Niña events are classified by their strength. “Strong” and “very strong” events are more likely to result in weather that affects agriculture and food production, like droughts, floods, heatwaves, and hurricanes.
According to reporting from Gizmodo, that would make this El Niño one of the largest on record.
Like other El Niño events, weather impacts will vary from region to region. Disruptions to rainfall, temperatures, and storm patterns are expected. Prolonged heatwaves for much of Europe and the U.S. and droughts across Africa, Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean are also predicted.
In response to these warnings, Fairtrade released the following statements:
Farmers
“To prepare ourselves for the impact of the “El Niño, we apply some practices such as Trichoderma (beneficial fungus). Because in this phenomenon, with the many rains, different types of plagues can appear. And by having our soil well fed, it will counteract any plague or fungus that may appear. Among [other] practices that we use, there are some bio-organic practices, such as soil coverage, cover crops, biochar, and improved compost.”
–María Juárez, Farmer, Cooperativa Rio y Valle, Peru
“The anticipated El Niño conditions are expected to have a significant impact on coffee production in Wayanad. Coffee cultivation, particularly Arabica and Robusta, depends on timely pre-monsoon showers for flowering and adequate rainfall during berry development. Prolonged dry spells and above-normal temperatures associated with El Niño resulted in poor flowering, flower drop, reduced fruit set and increased berry shedding.
“The rainfall remains irregular, which results in a decrease in the yield. The quality of coffee beans may also be affected due to uneven berry development and smaller bean size. In addition, moisture stress can increase the incidence of pests such as the Coffee Berry Borer and reduce the overall productivity of plantations.”
–Bibin Mathew, Coordinator, WSSS Organic Farmers Fairtrade Association, India
Regional and Commodity-specific Experts
“Food and beverage companies have a responsibility to throw farmers a lifeline. Smallholders have watched their share of profits get devoured in the past few years by volatility driven by war, trade policy, economic instability, and the relentless pursuit of extractive corporate profits. Simultaneously, they have dealt with increasing crop losses, environmental degradation, and climbing production costs driven by climate change.
“A record-breaking El Niño could be the last straw for family farms that don’t have the means to prepare or recover. Companies that want to continue sourcing real ingredients from real farmers must invest in the people, land, and communities that will be impacted. If they don’t, they risk the viability of their own supply chains, and ultimately, the future of their business.
“Around the world, Fairtrade staff and Fairtrade farmers are using the resources they have to get ahead of the crisis and build resilience into their supply chains to protect farming families and the crops they grow for the products that we love. Let’s hope the industry at large steps up to do the same.”
–Amanda Archila, Executive Director, Fairtrade America
“In July, we witnessed the biggest single-day increase in coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange. El Niño is already causing extreme volatility in the market, before weather impacts have even begun.
“This is bad for the entire coffee value chain, and it is especially worrisome for farmers. We are sharing as much information as we can to help ensure they are not caught off guard by sudden market movements and raising awareness around various risk management tools, but no one can predict exactly how El Niño will affect production and prices.”
— João Mattos, Commercial Director, Latin American and Caribbean Network of Fair Trade Small Producers and Workers (CLAC)
“Banana farmers are familiar with El Niño, but climate change is increasing its frequency and effects. To cope with these changing conditions, farmers have invested their limited resources in more resilient farming practices. While these investments have helped prevent supply shortages and extreme price increases, the cost of adaptation should be shared by all stakeholders across the supply chain. It can’t just sit with farmers.
“When retailers, importers, and exporters source Fairtrade bananas, the farmers in their supply chain are working directly with our field staff to put in place technical practices that cultivate healthier soils better able to withstand water stress, reduce humidity loss, and enable more effective plant nutrition. These actions help reduce the risk of a drop in banana supply caused by El Niño and other extreme weather events. Fairtrade has the potential to be a shared solution for strengthening the banana industry’s resilience – but requires the banana industry to recognize and contribute their share of the costs alongside farmers.”
–Willy Paredes, Commercial Officer, Latin American and Caribbean Network of Fair Trade Small Producers and Workers (CLAC)
“Our immediate focus is on farmers across the region. Staff are communicating with farmers and cooperatives in their local languages to raise awareness of potential impacts and actions they can take now to be prepared. We’re also organizing a series of webinars with scientists and technical experts from partner research institutions, including the Coffee, Tea, and Cotton Research Institutes, to provide climate adaptation and mitigation guidance.
“Over the coming months, farmer surveys and other monitoring and evaluation activities will be conducted. Understanding farmers’ concerns and needs is essential to informing our future support.”
–M V Iresha Sanjeewanie, Climate Focal Point, Fairtrade Network of Asia and Pacific Producers
“Cocoa farmers are facing one crisis after another. A combination of geopolitical events and climate change has made an already precarious situation even worse. For years, much of the industry has failed to recognize its role in ensuring long-term, fair pricing that enables farming families to earn a living income. The result is decades of underinvestment in farmers and their resilience.
“El Niño is yet another crisis. Depending on where they are in the world, farmers may encounter abnormally high heat or heavy rainfall and flooding. In either case, cocoa yields, farmers’ incomes, and their standard of living will suffer.”
–Jon Walker, Sr. Advisor for Cocoa, Fairtrade International
Private Sector Partners
“Previous El Niño events have brought severe weather to Latin America’s banana-growing regions, affecting harvests and livelihoods. For the Caribbean, this has meant drought; for Ecuador and Peru, heavy rains and flooding can damage crops, increase the spread of diseases, and disrupt roads connecting farms to ports, complicating exports. For farmers and workers, being unable to export bananas means lost income.
“Fairtrade farms are better placed to respond and recover as the cooperative structure provides coordinated community support, and the Fairtrade Premium can be mobilized as emergency funds to help rebuild homes, replant crops and support communities. Equifruit has already diversified sourcing across Fairtrade farms in multiple production areas to protect supply against extreme weather and we have a team based in Latin America supervising quality and following developments locally. We wholeheartedly support Fairtrade’s commitment to preparing farmers and workers for a changing climate. It is vital for the banana industry’s future that farmers receive sustained support from buyers through long-term contracts and prices that reflect living incomes and the cost of sustainable production.”
— Jennie Coleman, President and Owner, Equifruit
“Cocoa is a particularly climate-sensitive crop, requiring stable temperatures, consistent rainfall, and high humidity to thrive. When El Niño disrupts these conditions, farmers can face lower yields, increased production challenges, and greater uncertainty about their incomes. In key cocoa-growing origins across West Africa, including Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, weather disruptions can affect both farm productivity and farmer livelihoods, particularly when they compound existing challenges such as low incomes and limited capacity to absorb climate shocks. We see El Niño not as an isolated event, but as part of a broader pattern of increasing climate volatility that is placing growing pressure on cocoa-growing communities and the long-term resilience of global cocoa supply.
“Through Tony’s Open Chain, we work with long-term sourcing commitments and invest alongside partner cooperatives in farm and productivity interventions designed to strengthen resilience and improve livelihoods over time. While no sourcing model can eliminate the impacts of extreme weather, long-term partnerships, proactive planning, and a diversified network of sourcing partners help create greater stability when supply conditions become challenging. Ultimately, building more resilient cocoa farms and stronger farmer livelihoods is one of the most important ways to prepare both farmers and the chocolate sector for an increasingly unpredictable climate.”
–Danny Magalhaes, Mission Ally Partnerships Manager North America for Tony’s Open Chain, Tony’s Chocolonely
About Fairtrade America
Fairtrade America works to rebalance trade, making it a system rooted in partnership and mutual respect rather than exploitation. It’s about businesses, shoppers, farmers and workers all working together so we can all experience the benefits of trade. Fairtrade America is the U.S. branch of Fairtrade International, the original and global leader in fair trade certification with more than 30 years of experience working for fair trading practices in more than 60 countries across the globe. A non-profit 501(c)3 organization, Fairtrade America is part of the world’s largest and most recognized fair trade certification program —part of a global movement for change. Learn more at fairtrade.net, and by connecting with Fairtrade America on Facebook, Instagram and LinkedIn.
Media Contact
Liz Davis, ldavis@fairtradeamerica.org | +1 202-930-4349
